THE BLUNT TRUTH – AT 9:38 A.M. ET:  We've said before that some of the best reporting on America comes from the British press.  Britain is heavily involved in the Iran nuclear negotiations, which have now collapsed...and are being extended.  Tom Rogan, in Britain's Telegraph, is blunt about what the next step by the United States needs to be, but won't be:   

President Rouhani is the face, Ayatollah Khamenei is the master. When negotiating with a theological absolutist, excessive flexibility is not a good idea. And yet abundant flexibility is the cornerstone of Barack Obama’s present negotiating strategy. On Monday evening in Vienna, John Kerry announced a seven-month extension to the nuclear negotiations. He claimed it’s the common-sense approach.

It's not. It’s a grievous error.

With another deadline expired, Khamenei is empowered. Recognising President Obama’s desperation, Khamenei has realised that waiting will bring no new penalties, and he is refusing to authorise Rouhani to make real concessions. And while some claim the negotiations are making progress, the record suggests otherwise. Iran continues to obstruct the IAEA by concealing its weaponisation programmes and demanding retention of its plutonium facility at Arak. Iran insists it be allowed to keep tens of thousands of centrifuges after any deal, and that the sanctions be removed immediately rather than progressively. Iran refuses a robust inspections regime.

There’s only one way this recalcitrance can be resolved:  President Obama must alter Ayatollah Khamenei’s strategic calculations. To do so, he needs to escalate his military threats against the Islamic Republic.

The military option against Iran is inherently complicated. Much of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure is hardened against aerial attack. This means that any operation would, at best, only degrade Iran’s nuclear capability for three to four years. Still, that doesn’t mean the military option is false. The US military has highly advanced bunker penetration munitions and could launch multiple attacks. Of course, air strikes would also risk Iranian retaliation through missile attacks, small boat attacks in the Persian Gulf, or terrorism from the Islamic Republic’s intelligence and proxy networks.

Yet the risks of a nuclear armed Iran are far greater.

COMMENT:  In a long list of failures, Iran is perhaps Obama's greatest, at least internationally.  The Iranians play him like a violin.  And Kerry, of course, has been wrong on every major foreign-policy question of our time, rivaling the distinguished record set by Joe Biden. 

I doubt if Obama will revive the military option, although it is needed.  Instead, prepare for a very bad deal, which will be presented as our salvation.

November 26, 2014